DALHOU
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Cowboys -0.3.
- Simulation: Texans win 5,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,400 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Texans 15th (5.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · HOU n/a | DAL 44% · HOU 56% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +127 · HOU -127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 26, DAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 14 and HOU by 19.
Side by side
| DAL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | DAL 34 @ HOU 30 | DAL | HOU -3 |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024 Wk 11 | HOU 34 @ DAL 10 | HOU | HOU -7.5 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2022 Wk 14 | HOU 23 @ DAL 27 | DAL | DAL -17 |
| 2018-10-07 | 2018 Wk 5 | DAL 16 @ HOU 19 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | HOU 17 @ DAL 20 | DAL | DAL -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away