HOUDAL
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,730 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Cowboys -0.3.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · DAL n/a | HOU 47% · DAL 53% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +112 · DAL -112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 24, HOU 24.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 16 and DAL by 18.
Side by side
| HOU | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | DAL 34 @ HOU 30 | DAL | HOU -3 |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024 Wk 11 | HOU 34 @ DAL 10 | HOU | HOU -7.5 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2022 Wk 14 | HOU 23 @ DAL 27 | DAL | DAL -17 |
| 2018-10-07 | 2018 Wk 5 | DAL 16 @ HOU 19 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | HOU 17 @ DAL 20 | DAL | DAL -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away