DALKC
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 3,750 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 11th against it.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 28th in field goal percentage (68.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · KC n/a | DAL 38% · KC 62% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +166 · KC -166 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 27, DAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 12 and KC by 21.
Side by side
| DAL | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-27 | 2025 Wk 13 | KC 28 @ DAL 31 | DAL | KC -3.5 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | DAL 9 @ KC 19 | KC | KC -2.5 |
| 2017-11-05 | 2017 Wk 9 | KC 17 @ DAL 28 | DAL | DAL -2 |
| 2013-09-15 | 2013 Wk 2 | DAL 16 @ KC 17 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2009-10-11 | 2009 Wk 5 | DAL 26 @ KC 20 | DAL | DAL -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away