KCDAL
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 5th (+6.7), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,750 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 11th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · DAL n/a | KC 52% · DAL 48% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -111 · DAL +111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 24, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 17 and DAL by 16.
Side by side
| KC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-27 | 2025 Wk 13 | KC 28 @ DAL 31 | DAL | KC -3.5 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | DAL 9 @ KC 19 | KC | KC -2.5 |
| 2017-11-05 | 2017 Wk 9 | KC 17 @ DAL 28 | DAL | DAL -2 |
| 2013-09-15 | 2013 Wk 2 | DAL 16 @ KC 17 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2009-10-11 | 2009 Wk 5 | DAL 26 @ KC 20 | DAL | DAL -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away