DALMIN
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Cowboys -0.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Vikings in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,070 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 14 or more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 0.5 points stronger.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · MIN n/a | DAL 41% · MIN 59% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +146 · MIN -146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, DAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 14 and MIN by 20.
Side by side
| DAL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-0 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | MIN 34 @ DAL 26 | MIN | DAL -5.5 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | DAL 40 @ MIN 3 | DAL | DAL -1.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | DAL 20 @ MIN 16 | DAL | MIN -4.5 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | DAL 31 @ MIN 28 | DAL | MIN -7 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | MIN 28 @ DAL 24 | MIN | DAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away