MINDAL
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Cowboys rank 1st in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (2.5%).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 0.5 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,960 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Cowboys -0.3.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · DAL n/a | MIN 50% · DAL 50% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +102 · DAL -102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 24, MIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 16 and DAL by 17.
Side by side
| MIN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | MIN 34 @ DAL 26 | MIN | DAL -5.5 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | DAL 40 @ MIN 3 | DAL | DAL -1.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | DAL 20 @ MIN 16 | DAL | MIN -4.5 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | DAL 31 @ MIN 28 | DAL | MIN -7 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | MIN 28 @ DAL 24 | MIN | DAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away