DALNE
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Cowboys -0.3.
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Patriots in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,350 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Cowboys rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 0.8 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · NE n/a | DAL 44% · NE 56% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +130 · NE -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 14 and NE by 19.
Side by side
| DAL | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | NE 3 @ DAL 38 | DAL | DAL -6.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | DAL 35 @ NE 29 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | DAL 9 @ NE 13 | NE | NE -5.5 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | NE 30 @ DAL 6 | NE | NE -8 |
| 2011-10-16 | 2011 Wk 6 | DAL 16 @ NE 20 | NE | NE -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away