NEDAL
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Cowboys rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Cowboys -0.3.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,800 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.1 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · DAL n/a | NE 48% · DAL 52% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +108 · DAL -108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 26, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 15 and DAL by 18.
Side by side
| NE | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | NE 3 @ DAL 38 | DAL | DAL -6.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | DAL 35 @ NE 29 | DAL | DAL -3.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | DAL 9 @ NE 13 | NE | NE -5.5 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | NE 30 @ DAL 6 | NE | NE -8 |
| 2011-10-16 | 2011 Wk 6 | DAL 16 @ NE 20 | NE | NE -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away