DALNO
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 3.1 points stronger.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,890 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.4 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · NO n/a | DAL 61% · NO 39% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -157 · NO +157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 24, DAL 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 20 and NO by 14.
Side by side
| DAL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | NO 44 @ DAL 19 | NO | DAL -6.5 |
| 2021-12-02 | 2021 Wk 13 | DAL 27 @ NO 17 | DAL | DAL -6 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | DAL 10 @ NO 12 | NO | DAL -2.5 |
| 2018-11-29 | 2018 Wk 13 | NO 10 @ DAL 13 | DAL | NO -7 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | DAL 20 @ NO 26 | NO | NO -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away