NODAL
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 3.1 points stronger.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,090 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Cowboys 24th (67.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.4 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · DAL n/a | NO 31% · DAL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +224 · DAL -224 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 28, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 10 and DAL by 23.
Side by side
| NO | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | NO 44 @ DAL 19 | NO | DAL -6.5 |
| 2021-12-02 | 2021 Wk 13 | DAL 27 @ NO 17 | DAL | DAL -6 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | DAL 10 @ NO 12 | NO | DAL -2.5 |
| 2018-11-29 | 2018 Wk 13 | NO 10 @ DAL 13 | DAL | NO -7 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | DAL 20 @ NO 26 | NO | NO -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away