DALNYG
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 4.5 points stronger.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,720 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · NYG n/a | DAL 63% · NYG 37% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -169 · NYG +169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 23, DAL 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 20 and NYG by 13.
Side by side
| DAL | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | DAL 20 @ NYG 28 | NYG | DAL -3 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | DAL 17 @ NYG 34 | NYG | DAL -3 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | NYG 37 @ DAL 40 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2024-11-28 | 2024 Wk 13 | NYG 20 @ DAL 27 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2024-09-26 | 2024 Wk 4 | DAL 20 @ NYG 15 | DAL | DAL -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away