NYGDAL
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 4.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 7,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,960 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · DAL n/a | NYG 30% · DAL 70% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +238 · DAL -238 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, NYG 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 10 and DAL by 23.
Side by side
| NYG | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | DAL 20 @ NYG 28 | NYG | DAL -3 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | DAL 17 @ NYG 34 | NYG | DAL -3 |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | NYG 37 @ DAL 40 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2024-11-28 | 2024 Wk 13 | NYG 20 @ DAL 27 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2024-09-26 | 2024 Wk 4 | DAL 20 @ NYG 15 | DAL | DAL -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away