DALNYJ
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 3.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Cowboys in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · NYJ n/a | DAL 62% · NYJ 38% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -162 · NYJ +162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, DAL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 20 and NYJ by 13.
Side by side
| DAL | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | DAL 37 @ NYJ 22 | DAL | NYJ -1.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | NYJ 10 @ DAL 30 | DAL | DAL -8.5 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | DAL 22 @ NYJ 24 | NYJ | DAL -7 |
| 2015-12-19 | 2015 Wk 15 | NYJ 19 @ DAL 16 | NYJ | NYJ -3 |
| 2011-09-11 | 2011 Wk 1 | DAL 24 @ NYJ 27 | NYJ | NYJ -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away