NYJDAL
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 3.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 7,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,950 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · DAL n/a | NYJ 30% · DAL 70% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +239 · DAL -239 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, NYJ 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 10 and DAL by 24.
Side by side
| NYJ | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | DAL 37 @ NYJ 22 | DAL | NYJ -1.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | NYJ 10 @ DAL 30 | DAL | DAL -8.5 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | DAL 22 @ NYJ 24 | NYJ | DAL -7 |
| 2015-12-19 | 2015 Wk 15 | NYJ 19 @ DAL 16 | NYJ | NYJ -3 |
| 2011-09-11 | 2011 Wk 1 | DAL 24 @ NYJ 27 | NYJ | NYJ -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away