DALPHI
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Eagles -10.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 1.8 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,050 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.14).
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 31st in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.28).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · PHI n/a | DAL 60% · PHI 40% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -147 · PHI +147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 19 and PHI by 14.
Side by side
| DAL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026 Wk 7 | DAL 38 @ PHI 21 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | PHI 21 @ DAL 24 | DAL | PHI -3 |
| 2025-09-04 | 2025 Wk 1 | DAL 20 @ PHI 24 | PHI | PHI -8.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | DAL 7 @ PHI 41 | PHI | PHI -7.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | PHI 34 @ DAL 6 | PHI | PHI -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away