PHIDAL
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Cowboys -0.3, Eagles -10.0.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,200 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.14).
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 31st in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.28).
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 29th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · DAL n/a | PHI 32% · DAL 68% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +213 · DAL -213 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 10 and DAL by 23.
Side by side
| PHI | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026 Wk 7 | DAL 38 @ PHI 21 | DAL | DAL -4.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | PHI 21 @ DAL 24 | DAL | PHI -3 |
| 2025-09-04 | 2025 Wk 1 | DAL 20 @ PHI 24 | PHI | PHI -8.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | DAL 7 @ PHI 41 | PHI | PHI -7.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | PHI 34 @ DAL 6 | PHI | PHI -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away