DALSEA
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.4 points stronger.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 3,390 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Seahawks 18th (6.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · SEA n/a | DAL 34% · SEA 66% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +195 · SEA -195 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, DAL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 11 and SEA by 23.
Side by side
| DAL | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-30 | 2023 Wk 13 | SEA 35 @ DAL 41 | DAL | DAL -9.5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | DAL 31 @ SEA 38 | SEA | SEA -5.5 |
| 2019-01-05 | 2018 Wild Card | SEA 22 @ DAL 24 | DAL | DAL -2.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | DAL 13 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | SEA 21 @ DAL 12 | SEA | DAL -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away