SEADAL
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,100 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · DAL n/a | SEA 59% · DAL 41% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -144 · DAL +144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 23, SEA 25.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 19 and DAL by 14.
Side by side
| SEA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-30 | 2023 Wk 13 | SEA 35 @ DAL 41 | DAL | DAL -9.5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | DAL 31 @ SEA 38 | SEA | SEA -5.5 |
| 2019-01-05 | 2018 Wild Card | SEA 22 @ DAL 24 | DAL | DAL -2.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | DAL 13 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | SEA 21 @ DAL 12 | SEA | DAL -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away