DALSF
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to 49ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 3,670 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 53 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · SF n/a | DAL 37% · SF 63% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +173 · SF -173 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 28, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 12 and SF by 21.
Side by side
| DAL | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | DAL 24 @ SF 30 | SF | SF -5.5 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | DAL 10 @ SF 42 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2023-01-22 | 2022 Divisional | DAL 12 @ SF 19 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2022-01-16 | 2021 Wild Card | SF 23 @ DAL 17 | SF | DAL -3 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | SF 33 @ DAL 41 | DAL | SF -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away