SFDAL
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,590 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: 49ers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 53 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · DAL n/a | SF 54% · DAL 46% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -118 · DAL +118 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 26, SF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 18 and DAL by 15.
Side by side
| SF | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | DAL 24 @ SF 30 | SF | SF -5.5 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | DAL 10 @ SF 42 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2023-01-22 | 2022 Divisional | DAL 12 @ SF 19 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2022-01-16 | 2021 Wild Card | SF 23 @ DAL 17 | SF | DAL -3 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | SF 33 @ DAL 41 | DAL | SF -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away