DALTEN
Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 5.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 7,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Cowboys in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,790 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.14).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · TEN n/a | DAL 72% · TEN 28% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -258 · TEN +258 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, DAL 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 23 and TEN by 10.
Side by side
| DAL | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-29 | 2022 Wk 17 | DAL 27 @ TEN 13 | DAL | DAL -14 |
| 2018-11-05 | 2018 Wk 9 | TEN 28 @ DAL 14 | TEN | DAL -4.5 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | DAL 26 @ TEN 10 | DAL | TEN -3 |
| 2010-10-10 | 2010 Wk 5 | TEN 34 @ DAL 27 | TEN | DAL -6.5 |
| 2006-10-01 | 2006 Wk 4 | DAL 45 @ TEN 14 | DAL | DAL -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away