TENDAL
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 5.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 7,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Cowboys in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Cowboys rank 14th (+1.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,010 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Cowboys rank 32nd in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.14).
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Cowboys 24th (67.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -9.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · DAL n/a | TEN 20% · DAL 80% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +397 · DAL -397 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 28, TEN 18.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 6 and DAL by 27.
Side by side
| TEN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-29 | 2022 Wk 17 | DAL 27 @ TEN 13 | DAL | DAL -14 |
| 2018-11-05 | 2018 Wk 9 | TEN 28 @ DAL 14 | TEN | DAL -4.5 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | DAL 26 @ TEN 10 | DAL | TEN -3 |
| 2010-10-10 | 2010 Wk 5 | TEN 34 @ DAL 27 | TEN | DAL -6.5 |
| 2006-10-01 | 2006 Wk 4 | DAL 45 @ TEN 14 | DAL | DAL -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away