DENDET
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Simulation: Lions win 5,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Lions rank 10th (3.8), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,460 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · DET n/a | DEN 45% · DET 55% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +124 · DET -124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 26, DEN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 14 and DET by 18.
Side by side
| DEN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-16 | 2023 Wk 15 | DEN 17 @ DET 42 | DET | DET -5.5 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | DET 10 @ DEN 38 | DEN | DEN -13 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | DET 17 @ DEN 27 | DEN | DEN -9.5 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | DEN 24 @ DET 12 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | DET 45 @ DEN 10 | DET | DET -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away