DETDEN
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Lions cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Strength: Broncos rank 4th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (-0.08).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,560 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Lions rank 10th (3.8), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 15 or more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 0.4 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · DEN n/a | DET 46% · DEN 54% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +119 · DEN -119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 26, DET 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 15 and DEN by 18.
Side by side
| DET | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-16 | 2023 Wk 15 | DEN 17 @ DET 42 | DET | DET -5.5 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | DET 10 @ DEN 38 | DEN | DEN -13 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | DET 17 @ DEN 27 | DEN | DEN -9.5 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | DEN 24 @ DET 12 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | DET 45 @ DEN 10 | DET | DET -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away