DENHOU
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Texans win 5,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Texans rank 4th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (4.0).
- Strength: Texans rank 5th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (7.9%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,690 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.3 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · HOU n/a | DEN 47% · HOU 53% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +113 · HOU -113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 22, DEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 15 and HOU by 18.
Side by side
| DEN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | DEN 18 @ HOU 15 | DEN | HOU -1.5 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | DEN 17 @ HOU 22 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | HOU 9 @ DEN 16 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | DEN 38 @ HOU 24 | DEN | HOU -8 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | HOU 19 @ DEN 17 | HOU | DEN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away