HOUDEN
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Penalty yards per game: Broncos rank 12th (54.7), Texans 28th (72.6).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,320 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.3 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · DEN n/a | HOU 43% · DEN 57% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +131 · DEN -131 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 23, HOU 20.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 14 and DEN by 19.
Side by side
| HOU | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | DEN 18 @ HOU 15 | DEN | HOU -1.5 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | DEN 17 @ HOU 22 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | HOU 9 @ DEN 16 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | DEN 38 @ HOU 24 | DEN | HOU -8 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | HOU 19 @ DEN 17 | HOU | DEN -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away