DENIND
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Colts -8.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.4 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Broncos in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,870 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · IND n/a | DEN 61% · IND 39% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -158 · IND +158 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 21, DEN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 20 and IND by 14.
Side by side
| DEN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | DEN 28 @ IND 29 | IND | DEN -2.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | IND 13 @ DEN 31 | DEN | DEN -4.5 |
| 2022-10-06 | 2022 Wk 5 | IND 12 @ DEN 9 | IND | DEN -3.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | DEN 13 @ IND 15 | IND | IND -6 |
| 2017-12-14 | 2017 Wk 15 | DEN 25 @ IND 13 | DEN | DEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away