INDDEN
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Colts -8.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.3 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Broncos in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,120 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 11 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Colts rank 21st (3.1), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · DEN n/a | IND 31% · DEN 69% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +220 · DEN -220 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 25, IND 20.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 11 and DEN by 23.
Side by side
| IND | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | DEN 28 @ IND 29 | IND | DEN -2.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | IND 13 @ DEN 31 | DEN | DEN -4.5 |
| 2022-10-06 | 2022 Wk 5 | IND 12 @ DEN 9 | IND | DEN -3.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | DEN 13 @ IND 15 | IND | IND -6 |
| 2017-12-14 | 2017 Wk 15 | DEN 25 @ IND 13 | DEN | DEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away