DENJAX
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,010 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Jaguars +1.3.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Broncos rank 9th (7.4%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 13 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Broncos rank 12th (54.7), Jaguars 25th (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · JAX n/a | DEN 40% · JAX 60% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +149 · JAX -149 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 24, DEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 13 and JAX by 21.
Side by side
| DEN | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | JAX 13 @ DEN 20 | DEN | DEN -2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | JAX 34 @ DEN 20 | JAX | DEN -3.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | DEN 21 @ JAX 17 | DEN | JAX -1 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | DEN 23 @ JAX 13 | DEN | DEN -6 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | JAX 26 @ DEN 24 | JAX | DEN -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away