JAXDEN
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Jaguars rank 10th (3.8), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,860 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Jaguars +1.3.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Jaguars cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Broncos rank 9th (7.4%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · DEN n/a | JAX 51% · DEN 49% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -106 · DEN +106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 23, JAX 23.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 17 and DEN by 17.
Side by side
| JAX | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | JAX 13 @ DEN 20 | DEN | DEN -2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | JAX 34 @ DEN 20 | JAX | DEN -3.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | DEN 21 @ JAX 17 | DEN | JAX -1 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | DEN 23 @ JAX 13 | DEN | DEN -6 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | JAX 26 @ DEN 24 | JAX | DEN -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away