DENLA
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Rams rank 17th (3.6), Broncos 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Broncos win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Broncos rank 9th (7.4%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · LA n/a | DEN 40% · LA 60% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +151 · LA -151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 24, DEN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 13 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| DEN | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | LA 26 @ DEN 30 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2022-12-25 | 2022 Wk 16 | DEN 14 @ LA 51 | LA | DEN -3 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | LA 23 @ DEN 20 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2014-11-16 | 2014 Wk 11 | DEN 7 @ LA 22 | LA | DEN -8 |
| 2010-11-28 | 2010 Wk 12 | LA 36 @ DEN 33 | LA | DEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away