LADEN
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Rams rank 17th (3.6), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- History: Rams won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Broncos rank 9th (7.4%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · DEN n/a | LA 52% · DEN 48% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -109 · DEN +109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 23, LA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 17 and DEN by 17.
Side by side
| LA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | LA 26 @ DEN 30 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2022-12-25 | 2022 Wk 16 | DEN 14 @ LA 51 | LA | DEN -3 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | LA 23 @ DEN 20 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2014-11-16 | 2014 Wk 11 | DEN 7 @ LA 22 | LA | DEN -8 |
| 2010-11-28 | 2010 Wk 12 | LA 36 @ DEN 33 | LA | DEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away