DENLAC
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.1 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,790 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.4 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · LAC n/a | DEN 62% · LAC 38% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -164 · LAC +164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 20, DEN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 20 and LAC by 13.
Side by side
| DEN | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 0-6 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | DEN 23 @ LAC 17 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | LAC 3 @ DEN 19 | DEN | DEN -14.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | DEN 20 @ LAC 23 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024 Wk 16 | DEN 27 @ LAC 34 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | LAC 23 @ DEN 16 | LAC | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away