LACDEN
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.1 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 25th in offense, EPA per play (-0.05).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.4 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · DEN n/a | LAC 28% · DEN 72% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +252 · DEN -252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, LAC 17.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 10 and DEN by 24.
Side by side
| LAC | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | DEN 23 @ LAC 17 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | LAC 3 @ DEN 19 | DEN | DEN -14.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | DEN 20 @ LAC 23 | LAC | LAC -2.5 |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024 Wk 16 | DEN 27 @ LAC 34 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | LAC 23 @ DEN 16 | LAC | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away