DENMIN
Denver Broncos @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Strength: Vikings rank 1st in point differential per game (+8.5).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,400 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 0.7 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 14 or more.
- History: Broncos won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · MIN n/a | DEN 44% · MIN 56% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +127 · MIN -127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 21, DEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 14 and MIN by 18.
Side by side
| DEN | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-0 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | MIN 20 @ DEN 21 | DEN | DEN -2.5 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | DEN 23 @ MIN 27 | MIN | MIN -10 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | MIN 20 @ DEN 23 | DEN | DEN -7 |
| 2011-12-04 | 2011 Wk 13 | DEN 35 @ MIN 32 | DEN | MIN -1 |
| 2007-12-30 | 2007 Wk 17 | MIN 19 @ DEN 22 | DEN | MIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away