MINDEN
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 0.6 points stronger.
- History: Broncos won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 15 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Broncos 9th (7.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · DEN n/a | MIN 47% · DEN 53% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +114 · DEN -114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 21, MIN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 15 and DEN by 18.
Side by side
| MIN | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | MIN 20 @ DEN 21 | DEN | DEN -2.5 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | DEN 23 @ MIN 27 | MIN | MIN -10 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | MIN 20 @ DEN 23 | DEN | DEN -7 |
| 2011-12-04 | 2011 Wk 13 | DEN 35 @ MIN 32 | DEN | MIN -1 |
| 2007-12-30 | 2007 Wk 17 | MIN 19 @ DEN 22 | DEN | MIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away