DENNO
Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 3.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Saints -3.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Broncos in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,510 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 12 or more.
- Saints running game (24th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · NO n/a | DEN 65% · NO 35% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -185 · NO +185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 20, DEN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 21 and NO by 12.
Side by side
| DEN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-17 | 2024 Wk 7 | DEN 33 @ NO 10 | DEN | DEN -2.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | NO 31 @ DEN 3 | NO | NO -17 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | DEN 25 @ NO 23 | DEN | NO -3 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | NO 14 @ DEN 34 | DEN | DEN -6 |
| 2008-09-21 | 2008 Wk 3 | NO 32 @ DEN 34 | DEN | DEN -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away