NODEN
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 3.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Saints -3.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Broncos in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,780 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 9 or more.
- Saints running game (24th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · DEN n/a | NO 28% · DEN 72% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +260 · DEN -260 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 26, NO 19.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 9 and DEN by 24.
Side by side
| NO | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-17 | 2024 Wk 7 | DEN 33 @ NO 10 | DEN | DEN -2.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | NO 31 @ DEN 3 | NO | NO -17 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | DEN 25 @ NO 23 | DEN | NO -3 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | NO 14 @ DEN 34 | DEN | DEN -6 |
| 2008-09-21 | 2008 Wk 3 | NO 32 @ DEN 34 | DEN | DEN -5.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away