DENNYG
Denver Broncos @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Giants -0.3.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Giants 20th (-0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,470 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · NYG n/a | DEN 65% · NYG 35% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -188 · NYG +188 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 20, DEN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 21 and NYG by 12.
Side by side
| DEN | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | NYG 32 @ DEN 33 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | DEN 27 @ NYG 13 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | NYG 23 @ DEN 10 | NYG | DEN -14 |
| 2013-09-15 | 2013 Wk 2 | DEN 41 @ NYG 23 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2009-11-26 | 2009 Wk 12 | NYG 6 @ DEN 26 | DEN | NYG -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away