NYGDEN
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Giants -0.3.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Giants 20th (-0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,560 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · DEN n/a | NYG 26% · DEN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +291 · DEN -291 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 26, NYG 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 8 and DEN by 24.
Side by side
| NYG | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | NYG 32 @ DEN 33 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | DEN 27 @ NYG 13 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | NYG 23 @ DEN 10 | NYG | DEN -14 |
| 2013-09-15 | 2013 Wk 2 | DEN 41 @ NYG 23 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2009-11-26 | 2009 Wk 12 | NYG 6 @ DEN 26 | DEN | NYG -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away