DENNYJ
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Jets -1.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,390 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · NYJ n/a | DEN 66% · NYJ 34% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -195 · NYJ +195 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 20, DEN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 21 and NYJ by 11.
Side by side
| DEN | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | DEN 13 @ NYJ 11 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | DEN 10 @ NYJ 9 | DEN | NYJ -7.5 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | NYJ 31 @ DEN 21 | NYJ | DEN -2.5 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | NYJ 16 @ DEN 9 | NYJ | NYJ -2 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | NYJ 0 @ DEN 26 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away