NYJDEN
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Jets -1.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,610 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 25th in offense, EPA per play (-0.05).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · DEN n/a | NYJ 26% · DEN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +284 · DEN -284 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 8 and DEN by 24.
Side by side
| NYJ | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | DEN 13 @ NYJ 11 | DEN | DEN -7.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | DEN 10 @ NYJ 9 | DEN | NYJ -7.5 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | NYJ 31 @ DEN 21 | NYJ | DEN -2.5 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | NYJ 16 @ DEN 9 | NYJ | NYJ -2 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | NYJ 0 @ DEN 26 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away