DENPHI
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 12 or more.
- Eagles running game (23rd in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.9 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · PHI n/a | DEN 64% · PHI 36% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -182 · PHI +182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 19, DEN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 20 and PHI by 12.
Side by side
| DEN | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | DEN 21 @ PHI 17 | DEN | PHI -3.5 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | PHI 30 @ DEN 13 | PHI | DEN -1 |
| 2017-11-05 | 2017 Wk 9 | DEN 23 @ PHI 51 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | PHI 20 @ DEN 52 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
| 2009-12-27 | 2009 Wk 16 | DEN 27 @ PHI 30 | PHI | PHI -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away