PHIDEN
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Eagles -10.0.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 1.9 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 2,810 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 9 or more.
- Eagles running game (23rd in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.9 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · DEN n/a | PHI 28% · DEN 72% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +256 · DEN -256 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, PHI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 9 and DEN by 24.
Side by side
| PHI | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | DEN 21 @ PHI 17 | DEN | PHI -3.5 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | PHI 30 @ DEN 13 | PHI | DEN -1 |
| 2017-11-05 | 2017 Wk 9 | DEN 23 @ PHI 51 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | PHI 20 @ DEN 52 | DEN | DEN -10.5 |
| 2009-12-27 | 2009 Wk 16 | DEN 27 @ PHI 30 | PHI | PHI -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away