DENPIT
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 1.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Strength: Broncos rank 4th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (-0.08).
- Strength: Broncos rank 5th in turnover margin per game (+0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,890 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Steelers rank 13th (3.7), Broncos 29th (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.2 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · PIT n/a | DEN 51% · PIT 49% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -105 · PIT +105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 21, DEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 17 and PIT by 17.
Side by side
| DEN | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | PIT 13 @ DEN 6 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | DEN 19 @ PIT 27 | PIT | DEN -2 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | DEN 21 @ PIT 26 | PIT | PIT -6 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | PIT 17 @ DEN 24 | DEN | PIT -3 |
| 2016-01-17 | 2015 Divisional | PIT 16 @ DEN 23 | DEN | DEN -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away