PITDEN
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Steelers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Steelers win 3,890 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Steelers rank 13th (3.7), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.2 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · DEN n/a | PIT 39% · DEN 61% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +157 · DEN -157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 23, PIT 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 13 and DEN by 20.
Side by side
| PIT | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | PIT 13 @ DEN 6 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | DEN 19 @ PIT 27 | PIT | DEN -2 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | DEN 21 @ PIT 26 | PIT | PIT -6 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | PIT 17 @ DEN 24 | DEN | PIT -3 |
| 2016-01-17 | 2015 Divisional | PIT 16 @ DEN 23 | DEN | DEN -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away