DENSEA
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.3 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Broncos win 3,530 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · SEA n/a | DEN 35% · SEA 65% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +184 · SEA -184 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 23, DEN 19.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 11 and SEA by 21.
Side by side
| DEN | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 2026 Wk 6 | SEA 14 @ DEN 17 | DEN | SEA -2.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | DEN 20 @ SEA 26 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2022-09-12 | 2022 Wk 1 | DEN 16 @ SEA 17 | SEA | DEN -6 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | SEA 24 @ DEN 27 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2014-09-21 | 2014 Wk 3 | DEN 20 @ SEA 26 | SEA | SEA -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away