SEADEN
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Seahawks rank 17th (3.6), Broncos 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · DEN n/a | SEA 56% · DEN 44% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -126 · DEN +126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 20, SEA 21.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 18 and DEN by 14.
Side by side
| SEA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | 2026 Wk 6 | SEA 14 @ DEN 17 | DEN | SEA -2.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | DEN 20 @ SEA 26 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2022-09-12 | 2022 Wk 1 | DEN 16 @ SEA 17 | SEA | DEN -6 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | SEA 24 @ DEN 27 | DEN | DEN -3 |
| 2014-09-21 | 2014 Wk 3 | DEN 20 @ SEA 26 | SEA | SEA -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away