DENWAS
Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Commanders -7.7.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,840 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,160 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Broncos 29th (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.8 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · WAS n/a | DEN 68% · WAS 32% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -216 · WAS +216 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 20, DEN 25.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 22 and WAS by 11.
Side by side
| DEN | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | DEN 27 @ WAS 26 | DEN | DEN -6.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | WAS 35 @ DEN 33 | WAS | DEN -4 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | WAS 10 @ DEN 17 | DEN | DEN -4 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | DEN 11 @ WAS 27 | WAS | WAS -3 |
| 2013-10-27 | 2013 Wk 8 | WAS 21 @ DEN 45 | DEN | DEN -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away