WASDEN
Washington Commanders @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 3.9 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Commanders -7.7.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,390 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.8 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · DEN n/a | WAS 24% · DEN 76% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +318 · DEN -318 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 27, WAS 17.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 7 and DEN by 25.
Side by side
| WAS | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | DEN 27 @ WAS 26 | DEN | DEN -6.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | WAS 35 @ DEN 33 | WAS | DEN -4 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | WAS 10 @ DEN 17 | DEN | DEN -4 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | DEN 11 @ WAS 27 | WAS | WAS -3 |
| 2013-10-27 | 2013 Wk 8 | WAS 21 @ DEN 45 | DEN | DEN -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away